From Bad to Worse. Israel Leaks Plans to Attack Iran

Israel Plans to Hit Iran Nuke Plant-Sunday Times
ABC-Reuters March 13 2004

In the community of international relations it seems that perception is a large part of dealing with your neighbors, your distant relatives and the neighborhood troublemakers. Sometimes you need to give the outward perception of a big, menacing force that can quickly and easily ruin any troublemakers day (i.e. Iraq and Afghanistan). Other times you need to speak forcefully with others in order to help them see the error of their ways and when that doesn’t work; you pull out your wallet portfolio of what can happen (i.e. Iraq and Afghanistan). Still other times you put away the portfolio and the harsh language and instead attempt to reason with and offer positive incentives to those who cause fear and instability, in an attempt to help them realize a rational means of change and reform (i.e. Iran).

In recent weeks the United States has gone from a hard-line stubborn nose approach to dealing with Iran to a more slightly softer, hard-line approach in order to try and prove that it is willing to work with the Islamic Republic with regards to the nuclear enrichment row. Joining with the EU, the US has offered to not block Iran's badly needed ascension into the WTO and allow US made spare part for its aging jetliner fleet to be sold to Iran. Of course, in a classical mullah'move (im trade marking this as a term to define every time in which the ruling clerics/elite, make a move that seems purely propagandist in nature and of no realpolitik substance), they have subsequently rejected any US offer of economic assistance or breaks, saying that it is their right to have and pursue 'peaceful' uses of nuclear technology. In regards to the body of the NPT, they are right and are allowed to perform 'some' enrichments but they are also in breach of about 35% of the treaty and so don’t have too much of a leg to stand on there. Still, the writing is on the wall and here is what it says, “We (Iran) will have nuclear technology and if we choose, nuclear weapons and the means to deliver them." This writing is obvious to many as they look though the history of the Iranian nuclear agreements and negotiations, as a pattern of 'ok give me A, B and C and I will stop enriching Uranium, but not really'. So if the Iranians are hell-bent on obtaining nuclear weapons regardless of pokes, prods, sticks or carrots, what can we do to stop them? That is for another post and an upcoming whitepaper; Re-Connecting Iran, a roadmap for change that will be released very soon. The argument of this author is that military action, unilaterally by the Israelis, with or without American help is the single WORST option available. As good as Israeli and American intelligence is, the intel is murky at best on Iranian nuclear facilities. Learning from the earlier attack in 1981 on the Iraqi Osirik reactor, Iran has spread out its facilities all over the Islamic Republic and most are buried directly under residential neighborhoods. Any Israeli attack would need to be a coordinated ground and air attack in an effort to destroy as many of the facilities as possible and with the least amount of collateral damage. Still in such a scenario, even with a mission success rate of 75-80%, many of the key facilities would be left intact and would no doubt prompt the IRGC to ramp up nuclear weapon production significantly. This is not even the worst part of the entire scenario. By attacking Iran proper itself and not having even a slight idea of the internal infrastructure, collateral damage is an almost certainty. The Iranian people are not Arabs, but are a proud population of Persians that have been invaded and attacked by the surrounding world continuously throughout history and each time their ferocity has increased. An attack on Iran, by whatever outside force will result in the galvanization of the Iranian people (who do not like nor agree with their leaders) to stand solidly behind them and cause the US lose the last best chance for reform in Iran and stability in the region. Even though the United States might sit this one out, it would still be seen by the Iranians that the US 'let' or 'helped' the Israelis and this would undoubtedly be true (Use of US air bases, re-fuelers, intelligence, air space). At this point, diplomacy will truly be dead and future US Military involvement will no doubt be soon to follow. If there are those that believe that the Iraqi insurgency is a nightmare scenario, the images of young soldiers carrying their own coffins to the front lines and the 8 million Iranians that were killed in the Iran-Iraq war should paint a picture of things to come.

Israel no doubt must be allowed to defend herself against all enemies foreign and domestic, but they must also understand the ramifications of acting prematurely. Iran has stated several times throughout its Islamic Revolution period that the Jewish state is a sworn enemy but this is the case more in rhetoric than in truth. Most Persians do not consider themselves to have anything to do with the Israeli-Palestinian conflict and are quick to point out that they are not Arabs. If the Israeli military strikes, this will change quickly, willingly and without question.

The Iranian government is not utterly incompetent and in most cases, has shown that they are a very rational political body, worried more about survivability than much of the rhetoric that are spewed at large rallies and protests. While it may be hard to see this from the perspective of a resident of Tel Aviv, well within the range of a nuclear tipped Shahab-3 ballistic missile, it must also be seen that Iran realizes that such an attack would end only in their own demise and as any politician knows, that is a fate worse than Hell.

Israel, do not yet cast our last option in regards to Iran. Do not incite a wave of violence from the Persian and Shi'ia communities that will reach Biblical proportions in its magnitude and severity. While we might yet be forced to use a military option, that time is not yet at hand. Surprise, Intelligence and Will is not with us and so is neither victory.

He will win who knows when to fight and when not to fight. He will win who knows how to handle both superior and inferior forces. He will win whose army is animated by the same spirit throughout all its ranks. He will win who, prepared himself, waits to take the enemy unprepared. He will win who has military capacity and is not interfered with by the sovereign.
-Sun Tzu, the Art of War

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