Hezbollah: Emerging Viable/Legitimate Actor or Just more of the same?

The large gathering of people (Lebanese and Syrian) in downtown Beirut today (March 8th) can best be described using 3 key words; massive (estimates of 200,000 to 1 million), peaceful (for one of the most active transnational terrorists groups that is), Hezbollah (the backers, organizers and participants). This harkens so many more questions than answers that I hardly know where to begin let alone what exactly to say. Underpinning this entire day has been the fact that democracy is even more on the march now with the advent of dueling pro and anti-Syrian protests that were largely anti-climatic and involved no bloodshed. In the exact place that until only the last decade was wrecked by constant and devastating civil war and strife, these same opposing parties (minus the Israelis) have waged a different kind of battle using words and influence. That in its self is an amazing feat, never before thought possible, even in the most optimistic of circles. Even looking beyond this and accepting that the Lebanese people are ready for change, you have to look in confused wonder at the large and open display from the world's largest producer of terrorism and before September 11th, the group responsible for killing the greatest number of American Citizens, Hezbollah.

Hezbollah, a Shiite fundamentalist organization sponsored by both Syria and Iran, is infamously know for its heinous attacks on Israeli and American citizens and military personnel as well as enemies of the Iranian and Syrian governments. Boasting a large and well-equipped force in southern Lebanon's Bekka Valley, Hezbollah has been able to continuously harass its enemies and then retreat to the well-guarded areas under Syrian control. Recently however, Hezbollah has begin to shy away from spectacular and frequent attacks on its declared enemies and instead through the direction of its Chief Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah, has been sowing its seeds in more traditional and peaceful ways. Attempting to become a regional power broker and redefine itself as a legitimate political party, Hezbollah now holds a dozen or so seats in the Lebanese parliament and due to its numerous community social programs, it has a powerful sway over the Lebanese Shi'ia community (30% of the population)

So are we witnessing the evolution of a brutal transnational terrorists organization into a viable and most of all, legitimate political and social authority?

Not necessarily. It is quite possible that Hezbollah is positioning itself to take power of a wide swath of Lebanon, left by the supposed vacuum from exiting Syrian forces. They may see an opportunity in which to provide much of the same stabilizing effect but at a much higher cost. Although Hezbollah has evolved in light of September 11th into a much more tame or at least subdued organization, the 'party of God' still carries its violent and rageful hatred of the United States and Israel and will more than likely continue to be support and carry out acts of terrorism. Another possibility includes an ulterior motive of keeping a pillar of Syrian influence and dominance in Lebanon as it is forced under to pressure to pull its forces. This would leave an element behind which could be directly controlled by Damascus and Tehran and could be used in a variety of ways in direct opposition to democratic elections to be held this May.

In either case, Hezbollah is in a continuing state of transition as it evolves from a guerilla group of the brutal Lebanese Civil War to a modern day legitimate regional non-state actor. Considering the current power Hezbollah wields today; 12 members in Lebanese parliament, financial and logistical support from Syria and Iran, a large and quickly dominating Shi'ia population and enough high-tech weaponry that allows them to patrol southern Lebanon with UAVs(unmanned aerial vehicles), they occupy a position the necessitates the consideration in any power changes in Lebanon. It could very well end up that by pressuring Syria out of Lebanon, that Hezbollah could become more of an oppressor and harbringer of destruction. Or it could be the turning point in the history of a declared and heinous transnational terrorists group.

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