Center for Independent Threat Analysis and Research

"All that is necessary for the triumph of evil, is that good men do nothing"

Monday, February 21, 2005

China Good, Gap Bad.... Now if we can just effectively communicate that

China, although semi-communist and lacking in coherent human rights and political/social reform, is not the enemy. The Gap, the reasons behind the Gap and the shadowy figures who lurk in the Gap are the enemy.

But, of course this administration is not the best at communicating effectively both here on the homefront and the world abroad. Right now the last thing we need to be telling the world and China in particular is that we think of them as a large and looming threat and that they should view us in the same way.
China Faces Threat of the U.S. in Three Directions
Donga-ilbo Feb 21 2005

Just looking at the simple and unadulterated facts concerning China, one will begin to see why they are not a 'looming threat', unless of course we want/force them to be.
In 2001, we were spending $396.1 Billion on defense while China was spending just $42 Billion. Now while they are increasing defense spending dramatically(11%), they will in no way come close to even half of our expeditures within 20-30 years. So militarily, we have NO peer nor will we have one anytime soon.
China is important not only us but to globalization as a whole for several reasons one of the most important being the fact that we need their influence both in the Asian-Pacific Region (N.Korea, Russia come to mind) as well as in the Middle East/Central Asian regions. The ME/CA region is of extreme importance due to the fact that they WILL be coming regardless of our actions in a bid to secure their own insatiable need for energy and this presents us with an opportunity to form a strategic security partnership with them. Instability in the region does no one good and it will be in their best interests energy wise to see a safe and stable Iraq, Iran and Saudi Arabia. China already has some extremely lucrative energy contracts with Iran and would stand to lose quite a lot by any military or economic sanctions imposed on the mullahs.

Now, am I saying that China is an American ally on par with the UK and Australia? Not exactly, but they have their place and the right to earn our trust. That said, we have the same obligations. So why all the hushed talk around Pentagon and CCP circles about 'looming threats, encirclement, a New Cold War'? Well, in a strategic sense, look at China from a geo-political overview and you will quickly notice what seems to be a classic encirclement tactic. US ground forces in nearby Afghanistan and other Central Asian countries, B2's and B52's within range at Diego Garcia and Guam, Couple hundred thousand troops in Korea and Japan, Carrier Group 5 floating around and a whole bunch of stuff a few days away in the Persian Gulf region. Plot it on a map and China looks like they close to an invasion. Then add recent statements from the US and Japan on a joint Taiwan Security policy and fears of the EU Arms Embargo being dropped and you might actually see the threat level in China rising.

So what to do.... Communicate

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