Changing the Levant (and the Middle East)..... Bush Style

Who woulda' thunk that a devastating bombing and assassination of the internationally respected former Prime Minister of Lebanon, Rafik Hariri, would have brought about the uproar, the dialogue and seemingly, the change that is beginning to rise in the Levant (Levant is referred to as the region of Lebanon, Syria, Israel, Jordan, Palestine). Certainly not the perpetrators of the incident, whether they be Islamist terrorists or Syrian agents, they more than likely did not anticipate that thousands of Lebanese protesters would demand that Syria get out of Lebanon or that they Lebanese opposition would declare an 'intifada of independence' and that calls for Syria to release their influence and remove their troops would be echoed loudly by Pres. Bush. I believe it is the loud condemination and effective harsh rhetoric from the Bush administration, backed by the actions of the Iraqi War that helped to effect change in Lebanon/Syria and in time the entire middle east. essentially, Walk Soft, Talk Hard, Remind others of the portfolio of your Big Stick (ie Iraq, Afghanistan, GWOT Operations)

Now of course there is the constant harassment from Syrian/Iranian backed Hezbollah, calling for the Lebanese people to "cool" their anti-Syrian rhetoric or else and the muted attempts at stopping the UN Resolution 1559 calling for the removal of foreign troops and dismantling of Hezbollah.

Then looking back over last week, you have the Iranian government giving public support to their only Arab allies the Syrians and wanting to create a 'united front', only to have the Syrians release an immediate statement that basically says, 'Thanks but we don't want to share the American Crosshairs with you (Iran)'.

Then today, you have the possible culmination of all of these activities in the indication that Syria is indeed going to begin to remove its 16,000+ troops from Lebanese soil. So, lets take a little look at the events basically starting last October with the passing of UN Resolution 1559

1. Oct 2004 - UN Resolution 1559 passes, calls for removal of foreign troops from Lebanon (Syria) and the subsequent removal of Hezbollah.
2. Feb 11 2005 - Hezbollah 'curses the UN for its call to lay down its arms'
3. Feb 14 2005 - Massive, Mysterious explosion devastates downtown Beirut, killing 2 dozen including the lead reformer and opposition member, frm PM Hariri.
4. Feb 14 2005 - World condemns bombing, US immediately warns of possible 'bad things' to the perpetrators.
5. Feb 16 2005 - Iran proposes 'United Front', Syria says it does want to unite with anyone against the US
6. Feb 17 - 2005 - Bush tells Syria point blank, Quit Lebanon
7. Feb 18 2005 - Lebanese Tourism Minister quits, Syrian Spy Chief sacked
8. Feb 19 2005 - Hezbollah tells the Lebanese that they should cool it and stop making so much noise
   
9. Feb 20 2005 - Lebanese tell Hezbollah where they can stick it and continue massive protests and opposition declares an 'intifada of independence'
   
10. Feb 21 2005 - Syria announces that it will begin troop withdrawal

So in a very small amount of time, the situation in the Levant, has changed quite rapidly and it seems for the better.

1. Lebanon will soon be free of most Syrian troops and eventually influence
1. Perhaps then they will be able to collectively secure their country from Hezbollah in the south and begin again the process of Re-Connecting their country to globalization
2. Syria seems to have blinked when it comes to semi-united world condemnation
   
1. Why though? I believe it is due simply to the fact that Bush is not to be taken lightly and that his words are mostly backed up with swift actions (ie Iraq)
   
2. Syria also shrugged off support from an old time ally, the Iranians. This too I believe was an effort to tell Bush that we are not with those guys.
   

For the latest in threat news and research, visit us at the Center for Independent Threat Analysis and Research.