Center for Independent Threat Analysis and Research

"All that is necessary for the triumph of evil, is that good men do nothing"

Monday, December 11, 2006

Emerging Threats

John Robb over at Global Guerrillas has posted yet another prophetic article detailing out the New Threats that will be faced in the coming decades and how the situation in Iraq is giving us a very descriptive glimpse.
The emerging threats are so closely linked that with this pattern in mind, one can quickly be overwhelmed by the sheer scale of threats that have the ability to quickly consume vast areas of our lives and of the globe itself.

  • Global guerrillas. Open source warfare and systems disruption. Fragmentation and chaos that can swallow states and regions. In the mid-term: super-empowered actors that can wield bio-weapons.
  • Peak oil and resource depletion. The acceleration of resource consumption due to the mainlining of China and India at the very point these resources are reaching capacity limits.
  • Global warming. Not the slow change discussed, but rather a cascading change in weather patterns and ocean flows that drastically change continental climates. Ditto the mainlining of China and India as a driver here too.
  • Pandemics. Bird flu and other forms of infectious disease that can sweep the world in the matter of days. Have infection, will travel.
As I am a visual person, I decided to have a quick look at the world as of today while overlaying the Four emerging threats upon it.
More on this in future posts....

My intuitions tell me that if you add possible scenarios for future resource depletions due to Abrupt Climate Changes (im not a fan of Al Gorish Global Warming), Overuse by Developing Nations and poor Environmental/Industrial controls, one can quickly view potential hotspots. Take it another step further and overlay these areas with recent or current conflicts and even more by adding Globalization, Terrorism and Economic Freedom indexes and the picture of the future comes into clear view. Note of interest is in plotting the hotspots we have chosen to involve ourselves in over the years. Of present note, Sudan has little obvious Strategic or Resource value. That is except for the fact that it is yet another nation falling under Islamic rule and that the Chinese have recently invested close to $1.6 billion in development there.

This is all nothing new of course. Thomas Barnett, the Coming Anarchy crew, ZenPundit, John Robb and many others have been discussing this for years.